The influx of new voters to NH has significant implications because their political ideology and party identification may differ from long-time residents. Young potential voters are residents who are citizens and turned 18 after 2008. Migrants are potential voters who have moved to NH since 2008. Established potential voters are those eligible to vote who resided in NH in both 2008 and 2016.
Young voters (45 percent) are slightly more likely to identify as Democrats than are migrant voters (42 percent) or established voters (41 percent), according to analysis of the University of NH Survey Center’s Granite State Polls (Figure 2). In contrast, 39 percent of established voters identify with the Republican Party, compared to 38 percent of migrants and just 33 percent of young voters. Young voters are also slightly more likely to identify as independents than either migrants or established voters.
More than 500,000 people are expected to participate in the NH 2016 Presidential Primary today. The time-honored stereotype of the primary voter is the laconic Yankee with deep ancestral roots in the state, who dismisses fourth-generation residents as newcomers. Certainly such voters exist, but in reality most Granite State residents arrived only recently. In fact, NH's population is among the most mobile in the nation, and that has implications for today's vote as reported by the Carsey Institute. Only a third of NH residents age 25 and older were born in the state. Such migration, coupled with the natural change in the population as young voters come of age and older generations of voters pass from the scene, has produced considerable turnover in the voting population. More than 30 percent of potential voters this year were either not old enough to vote in 2008, or resided somewhere other than NH. Such demographic turnover contributes to the changing political landscape of the state, which has important implications both for the Presidential Primary and the November general election.
Two powerful demographic forces are reshaping the NH electorate. The first is migration. New Hampshire has one of the most mobile populations in the nation. Only 45 percent of the population residing in NH was born in the state. In contrast, nationwide 68 percent of the U.S.–born population resides in the state in which they were born. Only five states and the District of Columbia have a smaller proportion of their native born population living in their state of birth than NH. Among those 25 and older, who make up the bulk of the voting age population, just 33 percent of NH residents were born in the state.
The Great Recession slowed the movement of population within the United States and NH, but there was still a considerable flow of migrants to and from the Granite State. Between 2008 and 2015, an estimated 247,000 people moved to NH from elsewhere in the United States. Some subsequently left the state and a few died, but most remained. The Carsey Institute estimates that 197,000 of these migrants who are U.S. citizens of voting age remain in the state. During the same period, an estimated 246,000 people moved out of NH to another state; some subsequently returned, but most did not. The Institute estimate that 201,000 of those who left and have not returned were citizens of voting age. In all, as many as 398,000 potential voters moved in or out of NH during those seven years—a substantial change for a state with an electorate of only 1,078,000.
The largest source of new migrants to NH is the Boston metropolitan area, but NH also receives a significant number of migrants from the Northeast and the South. Migrants to NH include many families with children that settle in the state’s urban and suburban region, as well as 50-to-69-year-olds who relocate to the state’s recreational and amenity areas.
A second demographic force influencing the electorate is life cycle changes among its population. Between 2008 and 2015, 129,000 NH citizens celebrated their 18th birthday. These young voters have the potential to change the political calculus of elections because their attitudes differ from those of older, more established voters. The influence of these younger voters is heightened by the loss of 68,000 older NH residents of voting age through mortality.
Together the migrants and those turning 18 in the past seven years represent 326,000 potential new voters or about 30 percent of those eligible to vote this year. A similar analysis comparing the 2000 and 2008 electorates found that 33 percent of those eligible to vote in the 2008 primary had not been part of the 2000 electorate. Some will not register or vote, but those who do represent a substantial proportion of those casting ballots. Comparing these new residents with the established population of the state demonstrates how demographic change may affect the upcoming primary.
Current Issue - May 2024