The winners of this month's elections face an imposing list of policy tasks in 2013. Here are a few priority items:
NH's New Economy
As NH, and the rest of the country, slowly emerges from the shadow of the Great Recession, policymakers must reposition NH in the new economy. The options seem endless: Increase spending on public education? Lower business taxes? Reinvest in higher education?A tepid recovery, an aging population, slowing rates of migration of highly skilled workers into NH, and declining productivity all but guarantee policymakers will begin to weigh which, if any, of these policies are most likely to boost the state.
Health Care
If President Obama is re-elected, the state must decide how to handle the next phases of the Affordable Care Act, including the implementation of health insurance exchanges and the expansion of Medicaid to low income adults. If Gov. Romney is elected, state lawmakers are likely to face a series of decisions on topics including block grants forMedicaid and significant changes in the tax treatment of individually purchased health plans and employer plans.
The State Budget
Almost immediately after the election, policymakers will begin developing the FY 2014-2015 state budget. As was true the past two biennia, uncertainty reigns.State revenue growth remains tepid relative to historic trends, and a number of policy initiatives designed to save money may fall short. Moreover, there is significant uncertainty regarding the state's Medicaid Enhancement Tax Receipts, with those revenues well below goal. And the implementation of managed care in NH's Medicaid program, which was expected to save millions, has been slow to take off, potentially leaving another hole.
While there have been talks about restoring cuts to the University System, hospitals, and a host of social service programs, it's not clear this will be possible. Much hinges on matters beyond NH's borders, including the health of the national economy.
Privatizing Prisons
The NH Department of Administrative Services last year issued a RFP to run the prisons. If NH transferred all 3,000 prison beds to a private operator, it would be the only state to do so. Expect debates about the cost-effectiveness of this approach.
Education Funding
We'll likely see another attempt to pass a constitutional amendment giving lawmakers greater sway in determining how to distribute state aid to local school districts. The failure to pass such an amendment during last year's legislative session was a notable disappointment for longtime advocates who saw the large Republican majorities in the House and Senate as the best chance.
Businesses, in particular, have pushed for a constitutional amendment, as they argue that greater ability to target state aid to poor communities would lessen financial pressure on the state in the long term. The likelihood of passage, though, is slim, especially since House Democrats almost universally opposed last year's amendment and show no signs of backing from that stance.
Education Outcomes
While much of the debate on NH's education system in past years has focused on the question of money, there has been less policy attention paid to student and teacher performance. Both the NH Department of Education and individual districts are thinking about ways to improve the state's accountability and teacher evaluation systems. Lawmakers may want to join this discussion, for instance, by investigating whether other states offer examples of ways to strengthen NH's system.
The Retirement System
Most states, including NH, have taken steps to address rising public pension costs. The policy conversation here, however, is not likely done. First, the recent move to recalibrate long-term expectations about the rate of return on pension investments will mean the amount schools and towns pay will increase between 20 and 28 percent in the next fiscal year (starting in June 2013). Changing the pension system has proved contentious. Undoubtedly, there will be renewed energy to move new state employees from defined contribution to 401(k) type plans.
Steve Norton is executive director of the NH Center for Public Policy Studies, an independent, nonprofit, non-partisan organization that pursues data-driven research on public policy. Its work includes research on the state budget, public school funding and health care finance. Norton may be reached at snorton@nhpolicy.org.
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