Migration Sustains NH’s Population Gain

New Hampshire’s demographic future depends heavily on migration. The state’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births. More people died (28,700) than were born (24,900) in NH in the past two years. COVID certainly contributed to this loss, but annual deaths already exceeded births in the state for several years before the pandemic. The state’s net migration gain is the result of a significant flow of 204,000 people into and out of the state. More than 111,000 people moved to NH during the period compared to 93,000 who left the state. Most of this migration gain was people moving to NH from other states, but there was also a significant migration gain from abroad.

Recently released Census data underscore the mobility of NH’s population and provide insights into the origins of the migrants to the state. Only 41% of the state’s residents were born in NH. The majority (53%) were born elsewhere in the United States and then migrated to NH. In contrast, most of the population in the nation and in New England reside in the state in which they were born. New Hampshire also has far fewer foreign-born residents than either New England or the country.

Nearly 44% of the migrants to the state in 2021 and 2022 came from Massachusetts. Neighboring Maine and Vermont together provided an additional 8% of recent migrants. The state also received significant numbers of migrants from elsewhere in the Northeast (14%), and from the South (14%), as well as modest shares from the West (10%) and Midwest (3%). Migrants from abroad accounted for 7% of recent arrivals in the state.

Deaths have exceeded births in each of the last six years, predating the onset of the COVID pandemic. This natural loss is the result of the state’s aging population and of low fertility among the diminishing share of women in their child-bearing years. With more deaths and fewer births, migration is critical to the state’s future, but it is important to recognize that migration gains depend not only on how many people move in, but also on how many people do not migrate out. The latter population far outweighs the number of movers: nearly 1.2 million NH residents who resided in the state two years ago did not migrate.

Kenneth M. Johnson is senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy and professor of sociology at the University of NH. For more information, visit carsey.unh.edu.