Gov. Chris Sununu has been “all in” with his strong endorsement of Nikki Haley ahead of the New Hampshire primary, political experts said. (Screenshot)
To say Gov. Chris Sununu has endorsed presidential candidate Nikki Haley is an understatement. He’s traveled the state with her and appeared on her campaign flyers. He’s talked her up on national news. He called on former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the candidate perceived as most likely to siphon independent votes from her, to drop out of the race.
Friday, Sununu joined Haley in Iowa ahead of next week’s caucuses.
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, contrasted Sununu’s engagement in this race with his 2022 endorsement of Chuck Morse for U.S. Senate.
“Yeah, he endorsed, but he kind of dialed it in. He did it late. He didn’t do much afterward. It wasn’t like he and Chuck Morse were barnstorming New Hampshire together,” said Scala. “This time, he made the endorsement several weeks early. He’s made joint appearances, and it’s not just a one off. I’m on Haley’s email list … and I get emails that are basically coming from him. He’s all in.”
Unknowable is how much a nod from even a popular four-term governor can accomplish. In Iowa, the answer is probably not much, said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.
As of Tuesday, Haley was trailing Trump by 35.5 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
“The problem that Sununu and Haley would have,” Hagle said, “is if they’re seen as establishment, not only the Trump people, who probably wouldn’t vote for them anyway, but even the (Florida Gov. Ron) DeSantis people who are open to voting for somebody other than Trump would perhaps reject another candidate seen as establishment.”
Haley is polling much better in New Hampshire, where FiveThirtyEight put her behind Trump by 14.3 percentage points. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center released a poll Tuesday showing a much narrower gap of seven points, enough to put her within “striking distance,” it said.
Haley made no secret that her campaign is counting on New Hampshire when she told a Milford crowd last week that the Granite State “correct(s)” Iowa’s results. The state’s nearly 344,200 undeclared voters, who’ve helped Sununu win four terms, look to be her best hope.
In its poll, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center said 43 percent of undeclared voters backed Haley. Christie was next with 23 percent, followed by Donald Trump with 17 percent.
A poll released Tuesday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center showed Haley’s support has grown significantly among the state’s undeclared voters, a key voting bloc in New Hampshire. (Screenshot)
Should Christie end his bid, a suggestion he’s rejected, it would be Haley who’d benefit most because two-thirds of his likely voters said Haley was their second choice, according to the poll.
Still, political experts said they remain uncertain that Sununu’s endorsement will be enough to help Haley best Trump in New Hampshire or even put her close enough to remain competitive. A distant second won’t do it, they said.
Nathan Shrader, a professor of politics at New England College, said endorsements have lost their influence as voters have become more independent-minded. That’s true, he said, even when the endorsement is coming from a popular governor who handily won four terms.
Shrader pointed to Sununu’s endorsements in 2022 where all the Republicans he backed for Congress lost and some of his favored State House candidates did the same.
“I’ve only been in New Hampshire for two years, even though I’ve followed New Hampshire politics for longer than that,” Shrader said. “I am yet to see that Chris Sununu’s political pull is all that transferable to another candidate.”
Haley’s campaign is not alone in counting the state’s undeclared voters, a group that includes 3,452 Democrats who switched their party affiliation to “undeclared,” ahead of the state’s Oct. 7 registration deadline.
“You kind of need to pull a rabbit out of the hat, and that rabbit is those independent voters who have nothing better to do,” Scala said. “That may be where Sununu is a good surrogate.”
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley and Gov. Chris Sununu speak to members of the press after Sununu’s endorsement of Haley during a town hall event at McIntyre Ski Area on Dec. 12, 2023, in Manchester. (Sophie Park | Getty Images)
Primary Pivot, a new national PAC, encouraged Democrats in that direction.
The group – which names a Republican, former U.S. Sen. Gordon Humphrey, and Democrat, former state Democratic Party Chairman George Bruno, as advisers – has a single goal: defeating Trump. Sununu, who has been outspoken in his criticism of Trump, has cited the same goal in backing Haley.
Co-founder Robert Schwartz said the group put a “laser focus” on not only Democrats looking to vote against Trump but also the 130,000 undeclared voters who cast ballots in the 2020 Democratic primary. As polls have shown Haley gaining ground, the group has altered its strategy, shifting its support from Christie to her.
“We really appreciated a lot of what Chris Christie was saying and what he was doing in terms of engaging Democrats, engaging undeclared voters, and speaking what we feel to be a more forthright message about Trump’s threats to democracy,” Schwartz said. “But for us, we started this organization because we are deeply, gravely concerned about the existential threat of Trump. We want somebody who can beat Trump, and it has become increasingly clear that Chris Christie is not that person and that Nikki Haley is the one that has a chance.”
This story is courtesy of NH Bulletin under creative commons license. No changes have been made to the article.
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