New England’s modest population growth since the pandemic is entirely driven by migration rather than births. This has major implications for businesses, labor markets, and even elections, according to a recent report by Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of NH.
Analyzing the latest Census Bureau data, Johnson shows that between April 2020 and July 2025, New England’s population grew by about 310,000 people, reaching 15.43 million. That entire gain came from a net influx of roughly 466,200 international immigrants, offsetting a natural population decline of 21,200—deaths outpacing births—and a net loss of 121,800 domestic migrants.
“These data underscore just how central migration has become to New England’s demographic future,” the brief states. “With low birth rates and aging populations, there simply isn’t another mechanism for growth.”
The regional headline, however, conceals a sharp divide between northern and southern New England. Maine and NH posted the largest population gains, driven primarily by domestic migration from other U.S. states and supplemented by international immigration. Vermont’s smaller gain was split roughly evenly between the two.
Southern New England tells a different story. Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island all lost domestic migrants, but population growth continued because of strong international immigration. In Rhode Island, immigration accounted for the entire population gain.
For NH businesses, the churn may matter as much as the net growth, Johnson says. The state saw a net domestic migration gain of about 6,500 people last year, but that figure obscures the scale of turnover: roughly 40,000 people left the state, while 46,500 moved in. In addition, the state had a net gain of 2,400 immigrants.
“Companies are not selling to the same people year after year,” Johnson says. “Even when the net change looks modest, the population is fluid.”
That mobility is especially pronounced in southeastern NH, where counties like Rockingham, on the edge of the Boston metro area, attract younger, family-age households seeking lower housing costs and more space. About 25% of NH residents were born in Massachusetts, Johnson noted, making it one of the state’s most significant migration pipelines.
Northern counties, such as Carroll County, by contrast, are growing largely through amenity-driven domestic migration, including retirees and those able to work remotely, while experiencing more deaths than births. “There are fewer young women of childbearing age in some places,” Johnson says.
The political consequences can be just as significant. Newcomers tend to be more ideologically polarized than long-time residents, with fewer moderates and a slight Democratic edge.
“People imagine New Hampshire as a place where everyone’s lived here forever,” Johnson says. “In reality, it’s one of the most mobile states in the country. Only about a third of adults over 25 were born here.” For more information, visit carsey.unh.edu.
