Tourism and recreation attracts millions of visitors to NH annually and billions of dollars, but climate change is threatening this critical industry. While less snowfall and storms later in the season reduces winter tourism, the effects of climate change to NH’s economy are more far reaching. Increased flooding has led to costly road repairs and warming water impacts the fishing industry. Adapting to the changing climate is vital to the state’s fiscal health.
Scientists warn temperatures will continue warming for years to come, bringing hard-to-predict weather events affecting a range of industries. State Climatologist Mary Stampone, who has spoken at conferences for the Business Council of New England, says people want to know how to address these changes. “They want to know what type of climate they’re going to be investing in and what they need to prepare for,” she says. “They ask about models … and one thing we can say confidently is there are going to be more days above 90 degrees Fahrenheit and less snowfall.”
For those working outdoors, extreme heat presents several risks requiring investments in protective gear, technology and training, says Christopher Stock, a safety director for Eversource, the state’s largest utility provider. “We rely on climatologists and predictive analytics to make sure we can plan to have proper safety equipment and materials available,” he says. “When we have extreme conditions, we’re ready for it. It’s the nature of the industry.”
The warming climate has come with more extreme weather events ranging from droughts to heavy rainfall and snowfall. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), extreme weather events that cost over $1 billion dollars in the United States have been increasing in recent years and cost an average of $4.6 billion per event. In NH, the summer of 2023 was the wettest summer ever recorded with more than 21 inches of rain in June, July, and August, according to NOAA. In July 2023, an extreme storm delivered over 5 inches of rain in parts of NH and led to the worst flooding in New England since Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.
Derek Young, the NH business developer for Outdoor Pride, a landscaping and snow removal company that employs 145 people in the summer and up to 600 during winter months, says inconsistent weather has become the norm. “Last year it was really hot and two years ago it seemed to rain every day,” he says, adding the company holds weekly safety meetings to address heat-related illness and other safety concerns. Climate change has also meant a delayed winter season, Young says. “Winters are happening later so we’re trying to find more work at the end of the season to keep summer crews going longer,” he says. “It often doesn’t snow until January.”
One measure of extreme weather events is the money spent by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). From 1984 to 2004 there was only one event in NH (the 1998 ice storm) that exceeded $15 million. Since 2004 there have been four $15 million events and close to $180 million paid to NH by FEMA to cover weather-related emergencies.
Early Warning Signs
Some outdoor activities can be adjusted based on the weather. You can hike or fish in a variety of conditions. This is not the case for snow sports like skiing and snowmobiling. “We’re already well past the 1.5 degree of warming we’d wanted to avoid, and New England is warming faster than other parts of the country,” says Ski NH President Jessyca Keeler. “That’s not a good thing for the ski industry.” Fewer days of operation lead to lost wages and revenue while less snow fall requires costly snowmaking.
A 2019 Plymouth State University study prepared for Ski NH estimated that ski area visitors during the 2017/2018 winter season generated $384.2 million in visitor spending in NH, contributing $507.8 million in total economic activity and supporting 7,485 jobs.
Keeler says the ski industry is always hedging against a bad winter, recalling the 2015-16 winter season when the Northeast suffered its worst winter season on record. “That was a horrible season, but we made up for it in summer activities,” Keeler says.
Climate change also has visible impacts on NH’s fisheries. Cheri Patterson, marine division chief for the NH Fish and Game Department, says the 2014 moratorium on commercial and recreational fishing for northern shrimp due to low stock levels in the Gulf of Maine was extended through the 2025 fishing season last December. At one time, the fishery brought 28 million pounds of shrimp and winter income for New England fishermen, according to the Island Institute, a nonprofit in Maine that helps coastal communities find solutions to economic and climate changes. That number is essentially zero today, although a limited harvest of 58,400 pounds of shrimp in Maine, NH and Massachusetts was allowed this winter.
“What the federal and state surveys all show is a lack of northern shrimp that relates to warming ocean temperatures,” Patterson says. “The Gulf of Maine is one of fastest warming places in world.”
Since the early 1980s, the rate of warming in the Gulf of Maine (0.9°F per decade) has been triple that of the world’s oceans (0.3°F per decade). According to the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, a long-term increase in sea surface temperature is expected because of human-caused climate change. This creates large-scale patterns of natural variability in ecosystems, particularly regionally.
Fresh water species of fish in NH are also experiencing challenges related to climate change, says Dianne Timmins, division chief of NH’s Inland Fisheries for the NH Fish and Game Department. One of the critical indicator species is brook trout, which are in decline, she says. “Some of this is driven by warmer water temperatures affecting brook trout habitats. If the winter is short and mild, then the spring melt occurs that much quicker potentially reaching critical temperatures a lot earlier in the year,” Timmins says, explaining trout need to move around to find refuge in colder water and that damaged culverts and bridges, often caused by storms, are preventing this, especially in more developed parts of the state.
Patterson says the stress on certain species of marine life due to warming temperatures results in changes in food availability, which can lead to higher mortality rates. “It’s an issue of timing. Certain species are not there when food is there and this is related to temperature,” she says. “One of the only ways to manage the problem is by reducing fishing mortality by placing limits on harvests.”
Summer Impacts of Climate Change
Summer is a critical tourism month in NH, attracting the most visitors—and visitor spending— than any other season. With the exception of summer 2020, tourism spending has consistently grown since 2018, increasing from $1.85 billion to a high of $2.44 billion in the summer of 2023. There was a slight dip in summer 2024, when visitor spending generated $2.43 billion. Accommodations typically rank as the second highest source of visitor spending during the summer after retail sales but in 2022, 2023 and 2024 it slipped to third, outpaced by local transportation and gas in 2022 and food service in the past two years. This may indicate that while visitors are still coming to NH, they may be taking more day trips or staying fewer days. While economic factors like inflation certainly come into play, more rain fall and hotter temperatures can also be a deterrent for longer stays.
For visitors to NH’s parks, summer impacts of climate change are more difficult than winter impacts, which is a surprising find according to Michael Ferguson, UNH associate professor of recreation management and policy, and an author of a study on climate change and outdoor recreation by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of NH. “We looked at how visitors and providers cope and adapt to changes brought by the changing climate and found visitors can adapt to winter changes more easily than summer,” he says. “The summer impacts are really hurting them and with longer heat waves people can’t just shift out of that. There are an increasing number of visitors unable to cope.”
“We’re not downplaying impacts on winter, but summer impacts are so severe that people are leaving and not coming back. There are also ecological issues with warming as well,” Ferguson continues, citing algae blooms that kill fish and are extremely toxic to dogs and wildlife. “And we’re seeing more and more days of closure to swimming because of E. coli and other chemicals in the water from runoff including excrement.”
Maddie Smith, another study author, says state park closings due to contaminated water or other unsafe conditions are felt hardest on holiday weekends. Ferguson says the state has a limited number of parks and protected areas around the state and as climate change affects more and more land, “we lose more of these areas.”
“We’re seeing a double-edged sword here. As it becomes harder to recreate because of access, this is forcing visitations into relatively small areas that can also create conflicts,” Ferguson says. “As we see visitors and land managers adapting, the future of outdoor recreation in New Hampshire is going to depend on proactive investments, which balance economics with environmental resilience.”
Snowmobiles Rule In Coos County
According to a Carsey School of Public Policy report in 2020, NH’s average winter temperatures (December through March) have warmed by more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895. The warming trend follows rising greenhouse gases: Since the 1970s, nearly 80% of winters have been above the long-term average, and the top-five warmest winters have all occurred since 1998.
Such trends are worrisome for lucrative winter industries dependent on snowfall to attract thrill seekers. For the snowmobile industry, inconsistent snowfall and the high price of snowmobiles and equipment affect the number of registered snowmobilers from year to year, says Dan Gould, NH Snowmobile Association president. With better conditions this year, registrations—which help pay for trail maintenance—are up, he adds. “As of February 18, [registrations] stand at 33,781, which completely surpasses 31,095 total registrations from all of last season,” he says. “Club memberships are also strong. Many snowmobilers take advantage of the $30 registration discount for club members.”
Snowmobilers in the Lakes Region after a fresh snowfall (Dan Gould)
Among the challenges facing snowmobiling is that it is an expensive sport—one that became even pricier due to environmental regulations. Ironically, there was a steep increase in the cost for new snowmobiles beginning in 2004, the year EPA certifications went into effect to address climate change. “The miles per gallon doubled over night, and they were cleaner and better for the environment, but the price increased to roughly $15,000 for a new snowmobile,” Gould says. “Before 2004 you could find a decent snowmobile for $7,000 or less.”
Total direct and indirect revenue from snowmobiling includes everything from sales of snowmobiles and equipment to restaurants, hotels, gas, tolls and other indirect spending. Gould says that impact today is $826 million. “In places like Coös County, as far as winter tourism goes, it’s mostly all snowmobiling.”
Snowfall has been inconsistent for years, which affects revenue. “Even going back to the 1970s there has been inconsistent weather but when we have a season that doesn’t last as long, casual users drop out,” Gould says. In the 1970s there were roughly two dozen snowmobile manufacturers in the country; that number dropped to four by the 1990s. Yamaha, a leading manufacturer, stopped producing new snowmobiles last year and there are rumors, Gould says, another major manufacturer may halt operations. “We went from four to three, and we could be down to just two—Polaris and Ski Doo. A lot of Arctic Cat fans have their fingers crossed and are praying they survive.”
Costs and Perceptions of Climate
In the landscape of outdoor recreation everything is about the weather, says Brian Wilson, director of the NH Division of Parks and Recreation. “A lot of what we do is reactionary in terms of responding to storms that occur,” he says, citing millions of dollars spent repairing washouts to off-highway recreational vehicle (OHRV) trails due to rain in 2023.
New Hampshire ranks in the top 10 states for the impact of outdoor recreation on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The state is tied with Colorado and Utah, according to the Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan 2024-2028 (SCORP). Spending increased 65% from 2019-2021, 4% higher than overall tourism spending. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, outdoor recreation accounted for 3.2% of NH’s GDP in 2023 and over 31,000 jobs. This amounts to over $3 billion, which is more than sectors like construction, transportation and warehousing.
The North Central and Northeast regions of the country are experiencing more climate change impacts on outdoor recreation than anywhere else in the contiguous United States, according to a report by the Carsey School of Public Policy at UNH that was issued in April 2024 and funded by NH State Parks. The report states that climate-related impacts in NH are creating “unprecedented pressure on outdoor recreation providers.”
Ferguson says the focus of the UNH report was on frontline observers of climate change such as natural resource managers, hunting guides, and others who often see climate change before visitors do. “Providers have a deeper understanding of the challenges and operational disruption climate change has,” Ferguson says, adding the report also shows a growing awareness among visitors. “They’re becoming increasingly aware of these impacts because it’s right in their face. This is a critical moment because we can see visitors are getting on the same page.”
Ferguson says increased infrastructure costs due to the impacts of climate change have a disproportionate effect on the cost of outdoor activities, particularly for people with lower incomes and disabilities. From an economic standpoint, he adds, “Climate change drives up costs for outdoor recreation and this puts accessibility at risk for these groups.”
“Ski resorts are one example where increased infrastructure costs and increased snowmaking costs are passed on to skiers,” he says. “To keep things affordable, we need multi-season infrastructure investment.”
The UNH study recommended three areas for inclusion in the Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan including the importance of adaptation, stewardship, and collaboration in preserving NH’s outdoor recreation resources. According to a UNH 2022 Sustainability Institute report, NH “is the least aligned state in New England when it comes to its action and approach to addressing climate impacts.”
New Hampshire’s last Comprehensive Climate Action Plan was released in 2009, but a new plan is expected this year. The NH Priority Climate Action Plan, which provides a roadmap for a new Comprehensive Climate Action Plan, was released in March 2024 by the NH Department of Environmental Services. That plan, which addresses workforce development in residential building, transportation, and other issues, outlines the state’s initial steps toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions and was developed with a grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Funding, Adaptation, and Tradeoffs
Ferguson says costs associated with infrastructure maintenance, such as snowmobile and hiking trails, are often passed on to providers who are faced with trade-offs. “They may only be able to do project A or B but not both and that might be the difference between repairing a critical road or opening up trail accessibility,” he says. “The cost of maintaining both private and public snowmobile trails, for instance, is very expensive.”
The NH Parks and Recreation Division manages and owns over 240 miles of roads and multiple properties from the Connecticut Lakes in Pittsburg to the beaches in Hampton and Rye. “Many of the roads in the North Country in 2023 were impassable,” says Wilson, director of NH Parks and Recreation. “We’re still working through this. It’s often not as simple as replacing a culvert. We must take a step back and ask, ‘What is suitable for that area?’ When washouts occur where there was a 30-inch culvert after a storm, we may now need a 60-foot-long bridge span, and this leads to funding needs.”
North Hampton State Beach Parking Lot Damage (Courtesy of NH State Park)
Wilson says considerable vulnerabilities at Odiorne State Park and Hampton Beach also exist. “So far we’ve done well but last year significant back-to-back storms took out the North Hampton State Beach parking lot,” he says. “When that happens, our department needs to respond quickly. That was a $300,000-plus fix. When we’re pivoting and making a response to something because of mother nature we don’t always know if we will get FEMA reimbursement. This has a ripple effect on other planned projects.”
Visitors biking through Odiorne State Park (Courtesy of NH State Parks)
Keeler says ski resorts have been adapting to inconsistent snowfalls and warming temperatures by investing in improved snow making technology and renewable energy. They’ve also expanded offerings like mountain biking in the summer. “We’ve come a long way in terms of making those investments and from a policy standpoint we need programs like NH Saves, which helps reduce the cost of energy,” she says, referring to the collaboration of NH’s utilities to provide NH customers with information, incentives, and support to save energy, reduce costs, and protect the environment. “We’re competing with other states that have much better efficiency programs, which means they can spend less on energy and more on other things like their people and infrastructure.”
Funding the Parks
Wilson says NH is unique because the state parks are 100% self-funded. “This can be hard when we need to hire more staff because of weather related events,” he says. While the department does receive some funding through federal Land and Water Conservation Funds, “Nearly every dollar spent comes through a ‘pay-to-play system’ that includes season passes at state-owned Cannon Mountain Ski area, and registrations for snowmobiles along with campground and beach fees. Unfortunately Parks and Recreation departments aren’t thought of as a ‘need to have’ and are subject to being underfunded,” Wilson says.
Camp site at Gunstock Mountain Resort (Courtesy of Ski New Hampshire)
Wilson says the NH Parks and Recreation Department leverages popular state-owned attractions like The Flume in Franconia Notch that attract many tourists. “These places support other places that couldn’t pay for themselves otherwise,” he says, adding that maintaining the state’s park system is a year-round endeavor requiring a seasonal workforce of over 800 people. “The work does not slow down.”
Sometimes, Wilson says, adapting to climate change means retreating. This is the case at Odiorne State Park in Rye where a coastal path becomes impassable each year due to washouts and may need to be moved. “We’re looking at recurring events like this and we’re trying to design and plan for what’s going to happen,” he says.
Being Proactive is Key
As the impacts of climate change are felt year-round, being proactive is becoming more important, says Keeler. “I field a lot of media inquiries on the topic of climate change and I think there’s been a shift in thinking over the last eight or nine years about human induced climate change. People are seeing that it’s real, and we need to do something about it,” she says.
In March, Keeler attended a sustainability conference in Washington D.C. where she advocated for renewable energy in NH. “This is important for our industry,” she says, explaining NH is behind its two biggest tourism competitors, Maine and Vermont, when it comes to electric vehicle charging stations. “We’re not set up to welcome people driving EVs so they may go somewhere else. With transportation being the number one green-house gas emitter, we should be addressing that and charging stations are one way to do it.”
According to a Clean Energy NH and Ski NH study in January, NH’s slow approach to building public EV infrastructure could cost the state more than $1.4 billion in tourism revenue by 2031, Keeler says.
For Marine Fisheries Director Cheri Patterson, climate change in the fish industry can’t be viewed from a short-term perspective. “Some of the issues we’re having are a matter of bad management and we need to try to be proactive as opposed to reactive,” she says.
State Climatologist Stampone says being proactive means looking forward to address infrastructure needs. “Older storm water infrastructure relied on design estimates put out by NOAA in 1961,” she says, adding that the amount of rain produced for a 25-year storm event in Durham in 24 hours back then was 5.2 inches. NOAA updated that number to 6.54 inches in 2015. “Extreme precipitation events in 1961 were based on 10 years of data which informed how infrastructure was created for the next few decades and they were substantially less than what the modern era is seeing now.”
Despite today’s situation, Stampone says there is time to avoid the worst. “We’re already experiencing change but how much happens over the later part of this century depends on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions,” she says, echoing what Keeler has observed. “There’s still time to see things level off. What gives me hope is that more and more people are seeing the impacts and it’s motivating people.”
