MANCHESTER, N.H. Mitt Romney has opened up a commanding lead in New Hampshire, while Ron Paul is fending off Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman for second place according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS two-day tracking poll of likely voters in New Hampshire's GOP presidential primary.
The poll showed Romney leading with 41 percent of the vote, followed by Paul (15 percent), Gingrich (11 percent) and Huntsman (9 percent), while another 8 percent was split among GOP hopefuls Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. Sixteen percent remain undecided.
The Political Research Center at Boston's Suffolk University will release results of two-day tracking polls every day leading up to the New Hampshire Presidential Primary on Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2012.
Romney's overall margin (+26) has returned to November levels as Gingrich has fallen out of second place since the last Suffolk University/7NEWS poll in mid-December. Paul has reemerged as the number two choice during the Gingrich decline, while Huntsman has not benefited from a recent Super PAC television ad blitz attacking Romney. In fact, with both Romney and Huntsman sharing similar demographics, the ads appear to be benefiting Romney.
There is only one candidate who can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center. That candidate is Mitt Romney. Although the 16 percent undecided is high right now, it is unlikely that Romney will lose New Hampshire, despite what Iowa voters may do.
Romney's support is driven by older New Hampshire voters. Among registered Republicans 65 years of age and older, Romney led Gingrich 57 percent to 12 percent, and among women voters 65+, Romney led Paul 62 percent to 9 percent.
Older voters are taking the reins in New Hampshire and are saying enough is enough with hemming and hawing over this Republican field, said Paleologos. They have lived through good and bad economies and appear to believe that Mitt Romney is the right Republican leader for the times.
However., among women ages 18-44, Romney led Paul 31 percent to 23 percent, and among women 45-64, Romney led Huntsman 29 percent to 16 percent.
Overall, 50 percent of voters now say they are unlikely to change their minds, and among respondents who chose a candidate, 57 percent said they are unlikely to change their minds. Huntsman continues to have the most loyal following, with 76 percent saying they were unlikely to change their minds, followed by 69 percent of Romney supporters and 41 percent of Paul voters.
Only 29 percent of Gingrich voters said they were unlikely to change their minds, while 67 percent of Gingrich voters said they were somewhat likely or very likely to change their minds.
Fifty-four percent of women ages 65+ said they were unlikely to change their minds, while 66 percent of older men were unlikely to change.
The Tea Party movement is having little impact in New Hampshire. Among voters who say their values are similar to those of the Tea Party, Romney led Paul 39-19 percent; and among those who said their values were not aligned with the Tea Party, Romney led Huntsman 39 percent to17 percent.
Among self-identified conservatives, Romney led Gingrich 43 percent to 13 percent, and among self-identified moderates Romney (44 percent) led both Paul and Huntsman, who were tied at 16 percent.
Suffolk University will be releasing two-day tracking poll numbers every day through Jan. 10, with the data reflecting the previous two nights' field.
Methodology
The statewide survey includes two nights of 250 likely respondents for a two-day tracking total of 500 likely voters in New Hampshire's Republican Presidential Primary. This track was conducted Dec. 30-31, 2011, using live telephone interviews with landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at 11 a.m. Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center <http://www.suffolk.edu/research/1450.html> website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310 <tel:781-290-9310> , dpaleologos@suffolk.edu. He is on site at the Manchester, N.H., media center located in the lobby of the Radisson Hotel, 700 Elm Street, Manchester through Jan. 10.
Early Primary Poll Shows Romney's Lead with Older Voters
Published Monday Jan 9, 2012
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