New Hampshire’s natural beauty—from our coastline to the forests to the thousands of rivers and lakes that connect it all together—not only supports NH's critical tourism economy, but is also why so many visitors end up moving here. However, NH faces a significant challenge in the future. Can we maintain robust economic development and associated population growth while retaining the natural beauty and resources that are the foundation of the state’s quality of life and the real NH advantage?
Researchers with the NH EPSCoR’s Ecosystem and Society project (funded by the National Science Foundation), engaged dozens of stakeholders from different sectors statewide in discussions about NH’s future—specifically NH’s landscape during the next 20 to 40 years. We also consulted existing plans (including NH’s 2009 Climate Action Plan and the recently developed New England Food Vision) and population projections from the NH Office of Energy and Planning and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One of several visions that emerged is a NH with a vibrant economy connected to a growing population, but also one that preserves many of its natural resources. This may be hard to imagine given the sprawl that has overtaken much of Rockingham and Hillsborough counties over the past decades, and it calls for some significant changes.
Is Balanced Growth Possible?
One of our land cover/land use scenarios envisions a future where NH’s economy and population grow not by expanding into undeveloped land, but instead by renovating and redeveloping existing developed areas. Instead of converting forests to new housing tracts and malls, we instead build and rebuild within existing city and town centers.
Population densities in NH’s cities and villages would increase, but so would the economic, social, and cultural vitality of town centers. More people would be able to walk to buy a gallon of milk and a cup of coffee or visit with friends and neighbors. This type of focused development would also support enhanced transportation systems, both within and between population centers. Not only does this improve access and mobility for all, it also reduces traffic on congested roads and highways.
No doubt this type of redevelopment would require some significant planning, up-front investments and hard choices. Zoning practices in towns would need to shift from the current two- and one-acre lots to smaller lots in clustered developments surrounded by public open space. In fact, this is already happening in communities that are experiencing development pressures.
In addition, municipal planning boards would have to stop approving new subdivisions carved out of forests and focus on proposals to rebuild within cities and town centers. This increasing density would require an investment in municipal water and sewer and wastewater treatment plants. Redevelopment would cost real money.
On the other hand, studies in other states suggest that compact development can also help communities to balance their budgets. Condos may provide less property tax revenue than homes on larger lots, but many municipalities have found that the increased revenue from new houses is more than offset by the costs of maintaining roads and other infrastructure to support those living far from town centers.
Increasing density would also attract both aging seniors and young professionals who want it all—a great job, a great place to live, a walkable community and recreational opportunities. This is also a vision that is supported by several recommendations in NH’s 2009 Climate Action Plan that called for protecting existing natural resources—water, forests and agricultural lands. Opportunities to live in rural NH would remain under this model. However, future growth would be accommodated primarily in urban areas and village centers, not in suburban sprawl.
While there are many ways this development can play out, one compelling model underway is the Nubanusit Neighborhood and Farm Cohousing community in Peterborough, where residents balance the traditional benefits of home ownership with the benefits of shared common spaces, creating efficiencies and stronger neighborhoods.
Weathering Climate Changes
Addressing the challenge of economic growth and preservation of natural resources over the next 30 years also lays the foundation for NH to be even more successful in the second half of the 21st century. Why? Changing weather and climate are almost certainly going to increase annual precipitation across New England. While this brings the threat of increased flooding, it also means NH is going to have plenty of fresh water—the most precious natural resource of all.
When other parts of the United States, like the southwest and California, and other parts of the world dry up, we suspect that those thirsty individuals and their families will look toward New England and NH as a particularly desirable place to live. If this in-migration actually happens and NH still has two- and one-acre residential zoning, the undeveloped land from the southern border up through Coös County could be gobbled up quickly, putting additional stress on the natural processes that maintain our clean waterways in the first place.
If NH does the hard work over the next few decades of refocusing development within its existing urban and village centers, then the state should be able to absorb this population growth that will also serve as a significant boost to our economy.
Curt Grimm in the deputy director of the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of NH. Cameron Wake is a faculty fellow at the school and research associate professor for the Earth Systems Research Center, Institute fort he Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (ESRC/EOS) at UNH. Alexandra Thorn is a postdoctoral researcher for the ESRC/EOS. For more information, visit carsey.unh.edu.