Low Emissions Vital to Preserving Snow Cover

Winters are warming faster than summers in North America, affecting everything from ecosystems to the economy. Global climate models indicate that this trend will continue in future winters, but there is a level of uncertainty around the magnitude of warming. Researchers at the University of NH in Durham are focused on the role of carbon dioxide emissions in this equation—looking at the effects of both high and low levels of carbon dioxide emissions on future climate warming scenarios—and found that a reduction in emissions could preserve almost three weeks of snow cover and below-freezing temperatures.

“Winters are vital to all of us and taking serious action now to limit, or slow, the warming of winter could mean preserving many core purposes of cold weather including providing more winter protection for woodland animals, preventing the spread of invasive forest pests and increasing the ability of ski resorts to make snow—protecting the economy by maintaining the area’s multimillion-dollar recreation industry,” says Elizabeth Burakowski, research assistant professor in UNH’s Earth Systems Research Center.

In their study, recently published in the journal Northeastern Naturalist, the researchers analyzed 29 different climate models to determine the effect of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and other heat-trapping gasses. At the current pace, by mid-century (2040–2069), ski areas in North America will face up to a 50% decline in days where conditions would be favorable to make snow.

Limiting emissions could slow that to a 10% to 30% decline in the number of snowmaking days.

“Emissions scenarios play a critical role in the loss of winter conditions, indicating a potential doubling of the loss of cold days and snow cover under higher emissions,” says Alexandra Contosta, research assistant professor at UNH’s Earth Systems Research Center.

Historically, between 1980 and 2005, the number of snow-covered days in the Northeast was 95 days. Under the low emissions scenario, that would be reduced to 72 days—under the high emissions scenario there would only be 56 days. By the end of the century, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Connecticut, under the higher emissions scenario, are more likely to have a snow-free winter.

For more information, visit eos.unh.edu/earth-systems-research-center.