Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may be dominating election headlines, but state elected officials will arguably have a bigger impact on NH businesses over the next 12 months. Every year, Citizens Count surveys state candidates to see how they are talking about business issues on the campaign trail. Here’s a snapshot of how the 2024 state elections could impact your business.
Business Taxes
For several years, NH has whittled down its business tax rates. At the same time, the state enjoyed a few years of budget surpluses. Gov. Chris Sununu and other Republicans argue these tax cuts are responsible for spurring the economy and pushing up surpluses, but there were several other economic factors driving NH’s recent budget successes. Federal money, for example, helped buoy state coffers and stimulate the economy.
Now, recent revenue reports show a slowdown. Meanwhile federal money is running out and the state is facing expensive lawsuits related to juvenile detention and school funding.
Are legislators still interested in cutting business taxes? Citizens Count survey data shows that interest is cooling. In previous years, about nine in 10 Republican candidates said they supported further business tax cuts. This year only about two-thirds have indicated such support. Democratic candidates are even less likely to support more business tax cuts. A larger margin of candidates on both sides say they are “undecided” on tax policy and are waiting to see the final budget numbers before supporting any more tax cuts.
Housing
A recent poll from the University of NH Survey Center shows that housing is the top issue among NH voters. That’s no surprise with record-breaking home prices and rents. Many employers lament the difficulty of recruiting employees when there is nowhere they can afford to live.
In 2023 and 2024, legislators boosted funding for affordable housing and added some tax incentives, but debate stalled around zoning changes. There was some bipartisan support for state laws to limit zoning restrictions, but opponents rallied around the cry of “local control” and killed almost every proposal.
In 2024, Citizens Count is asking state candidates, “Should the state do more to encourage municipalities to remove zoning barriers to housing development?” It looks like there is the potential for bipartisan legislation on this issue. According to Citizens Count’s database, about three-quarters of Democrats and one-third of Republicans support state action to loosen zoning.
Child Care
New Hampshire’s child care shortage is another challenge for businesses. According to data compiled by the NH Fiscal Policy Institute, each month about 15,000 Granite Staters are not working because they are caring for a young child.
Asked, “Should the state increase funding for child care providers?”, almost every Democrat supported increased funding for child care providers. A few are undecided. About 40% of Republican candidates have responded they are “against” increasing funding for child care providers; most of the rest indicate they are undecided. For those candidates, their position may be decided by the state revenue estimates in 2025.
Net Metering
Businesses and residential ratepayers both face high energy costs in NH. Solar panels and other relatively small energy generators are one way to offset costs, particularly through net metering. New Hampshire’s net metering program essentially pays small energy generators for any excess electricity they produce. Supporters of the program argue it’s a great way to increase NH’s clean energy supply, while opponents argue it unfairly shifts electricity costs.
In recent years, the NH Legislature debated increasing the size of energy generators eligible for net metering, from 1 megawatt (MW) to 5. This could be of particular interest to businesses with the space to install a larger solar panel operation.
So far almost every Democrat to respond has supported increasing net metering opportunities. Less than one in 10 Republicans feel the same. Unless Democrats capture a majority in the state House and Senate, it looks like an uphill battle to expand net metering eligibility.
Anna Brown is director of research and analysis for Citizens Count, a nonprofit that provides NH residents with information about their representatives and the policy issues shaping NH. For more information, visit CitizensCount.org.
Current Issue - October 2024